Trump Wants Out

The Much-touted MOU...

is a whopping page and a half. Not much to sink one's teeth into despite being touted as the be all and end all of the Iranian conflict. Hell, CME is that long.

Reminds me of a saying attributed to Winston Churchill. When asked his strategy for defeating the German U boats in WW2, he replied, "Drain the Sea." When asked how, Churchill replied, "I don't know. Don't confuse me with the details."

Well the MOU sounds a bit like that. By the way...Pakistan was the chief mediator on the talks leading to this agreement. Clearly not in our corner. Heard "enforcement" is going to be the UN's responsibility. Are you kiddin'?

Please Mr. President don't settle for JCPOA 2.0. I can't stomach hearing Obama's "told ya so's."

So what's really in the MOU that Dems are blasting and Iran makes it sound like we capitulated mightily? Clearly - NOT MUCH. Does it even mention ICBMs, terrorism, internet for the Iranian people? Sounds like no. In fact, sounds like a giant nothing-burger. At best, a non-binding letter of intent. Everyone who's had a deal crater knows what LOI's are worth.

I put the odds on this MOU resulting in a sustainable, enforceable resolution, which encompasses the five "red lines" Trump set forth, at 50 to 1...against. As Senator Kennedy from Louisiana put it..."Only if you've been home-schooled by a day drinker do you think this agreement will change Iran's behavior."

Ultimately, as usual - it's all about the $$$.

Let's face it, all of this negotiation, posturing, false hope means little if the current regime gets economic relief. Regardless of where the money comes from. Oil sales, sanctions relief, cash on pallets, unfrozen assets, the US, the UAE, China. Doesn't matter a hoot. It's all money and it all spends. No difference where it comes from, it can still be used to rebuild missile inventories, reconstitute nuclear and fund terrorists. Ain't no way the UN will enforce anything. Hell, most are buddies with the Iranian loonies.

In 2016, 2020 and again in 2024, Trump called sanctions relief and unfreezing Iranian assets...dumb, stupid, crazy. Looks like that's exactly what we're getting ready to do. If the IRGC gets money it will do "bad things". Pure and simple. The only way to stop bad people from doing bad things is to remove bad people. It really is that simple.

Nonetheless, whatever the outcome is, it can never be as bad as Obama's. He left the nuclear and missile infrastructure in place. Plus gave them a boatload of cash and economic relief to help it along...on a pinky promise.

Trump wants OUT

So what's the net, no discount of this interminable seesaw? I think Trump just wants out of this quagmire. Like YESTERDAY. He dreads losing the House in November. And the Senate ain't no lay up.

While he would dearly love to be "the guy who fixed the Middle East" and abhors being lumped with Obama for starting a war that turns out to be much ado about nothing, I think his bigger fear is that he truly becomes a lame duck.

Solution I see coming? Open the Strait. Get oil down to 60 bucks and then slow play negotiation of the thorny issues like No Nukes, No ICBMS, No sponsorship of terrorism. I do think he'd bomb the bejesus out of the mullahs if it looked like he would end up with real egg on his face. But short of that, his main priority is the midterms. Midterm elections are notoriously, as we all know, unfriendly to incumbents. Trump knows inflation and the economy, not some whack jobs 7,000 miles away, will drive voter turnout and preferences.

Now They Want SATs Back

In 2020 the University of California state university system abolished SAT exams. Despite overwhelming data-driven recommendations by UC faculty. Why? No surprise - the U Haul Governor himself was behind it. The multibillion dollar HIGHER EDUCATION COMPACT was his baby. This program was intended to pressure the state educational system into closing minority and socioeconomic gaps in STEM education. In other words, let more unqualified students in and push them out with bogus degrees in math and science.

Why did CA really put a bullet in SATs and ACTs? Because they disadvantage minorities who vote for Democrats.

Well, shocker, the plan didn't work. Minority and socioeconomically challenged students in Advanced Classes were trained to memorize formulas without mathematical reasoning. Students were given high grades and foundational deficiencies were ignored because students no longer had to pass standard college entrance exams. When it came time to compete in the college classroom, the mierde hit the fan. Too bad they weren't at Harvard, where all get A's.

Not too hard to follow the breadcrumbs. Left to its own, the market soon becomes home to unqualified scientists, technologists and mathematicians who drive decisions that determine our safety and lifestyle.

Apparently educators in CA are coalescing to to do something about this absurd degradation of merit-based education and employment. Even calling for the return of standardized testing. Stay tuned but don't hold your breath. Looks like the Dems will stay in power again.

It's Official

A while back we lamented our perception that teenagers had abandoned the age-old practice of working summer jobs. Turns out perception is reality. A recent survey says summer jobs for kids 14-19 are down 80% from 20 years old.

To me that's a darn shame. Not surprising but not a step in the right direction either. There are multiple reasons not the least of which many parents feel summer vacations can no longer be wasted working or making some bank. They must dedicated to exhaustive perfection of some skill that will lead to a better college or a free one. I know that was the case for my kid. Football was the magic elixir and the formula worked. Greased the skids for the college he wanted.

But still, I find it disappointing and somewhat disheartening. Time was summer jobs were cool. They proclaimed you were "almost not a kid". You had a toehold in adulthood. You got to work alongside people who actually had families to support and customers to satisfy. You had a real boss - not just Mom and Dad.

While hardly a traditional cause for joy or celebration, summer jobs are transformative. For one thing they put some jack in your jeans that you got to spend how you wanted. At least some of it. Somehow summer jobs felt like real progress toward adulthood. You know. The alarm clock going off, showering before noon. That kind of stuff. One giant step toward growing up.

It's troubling to see it all gone. Pointless nostalgia? Probably.

Wedge Been Driven?

Trump is openly carping about Israel's recent bombing of Hezbollah as it tries to protect its citizens from continuing missile incursions. In fact, some pretty harsh words. Isn't this exactly what Iran wants? In the beginning Trump insisted the two were not linked. Clearly implying Israel was free to do what was necessary to protect its people.

Now it seems he's more concerned about his fragile "not really a deal at all" than having Bibi's back. Strange it seems from a guy for whom loyalty is the price of admission.

"No Money" to Fight the Repo Man

Continuing on with the really important news of the day...

Floyd "No Money" Mayweather, once considered the greatest fighter of his generation, is broke. He faces 24 years in the pokey for multiple offenses. He bounced a $200K check in Vegas, ran out on bills for his apartment in NYC and numerous private jets and owes a baby mama $1 mil in child support.

No Money is feverishly lining up exhibition bouts. Looks like he already has one with the Repo Man.

Big One Coming?

Tectonic stress levels in the San Jacinto and San Andreas Valleys in California are at their highest levels in 1,000 years. No comment.

In My Almost 80 Years...

I have never seen anything so rhapsodized while being condemned as AI. Why? Its ability to transform society while posing lethal risks society may not be able to control. "Existentialist threat" is the second or third claim out of nearly every pundit and politician's mouth, but AI may really be one! Read on.

AI will be a game-changer for global security. The implicit risks of this technology should alarm even the most optimistic observer of the AI transition—and serve as a wakeup call for the public.

An autonomous self-improving AI technology could simulate and design unique biological weapons and lethal chemical agents that no human has ever discovered or even contemplated.

Human oversight of AI models will inevitably be weakened. The next generation of AI is designed to operate autonomously, without human direction, commands, or guidance.

Computational speed will be revolutionized. The innovation timeline will be compressed from months to literally seconds. The speed of advanced model development will be instantaneous.

Whew, whew and wow.

If you think we are in deep do do because Congress can't agree on toilet paper, can you imagine where this will end up?

Remember Mythos?

The uber sophisticated, powerful latest AI program from Anthropic. Capable of hacking anything, anybody. So powerful its producer restricted its access until controls could be put in place.

Now a SVP at Anthropic says in 6 to 12 months, Mythos will look DUMB.

Wait I think Mythos has already been supplanted by Fable?

Whoopee kiyaa.

Politicians in the Beltway aren't the Only Idiots.

DC mayor Muriel Bowser partnered with President Trump and the National Guard to clean up crime in DC. Literally everybody says DC is vastly safer.

Build on success? Not really.

Yesterday, in the DC primary, residents replaced the Mayor with a sworn Mamdani clone. Just dumb.

TDS rules!

Institutions Matter

I want to tell you a quick story. Michael Bote is South African. He served in the military. Special Ops in the SA army. His parents owned a small dairy farm in rural South Africa. I know Michael because he has been my guide on safari three times. Great guy.

On my recent trip, I asked Michael about his family. In their late 60's, Michael's parents are now struggling to survive. They moved to a small town where his Dad searches daily for odd jobs. The dairy farm? Gone. Expropriated by the government. Why? Because Michael's family is white.

Institutions matter. Why is American the home to exceptionalism? Not just because we encourage freedom, innovation, initiative but also because we have the institutions to protect them. If you build a successful business or own your home, no one can take it away. Not the government, not criminal elements, not a despotic leader.

The rule of law, a counterbalanced government amendable by free and fair elections, a civil, informed society, an educational system that turns out capable, moral adults are essential to sustaining exceptionalism. Hard work, creativity, perseverance won't matter much without security and justice.

The point? Tread lightly before tampering. Court packing, abolition of the filibuster, a dishonest media and an education system that prioritizes indoctrination over basic skills abrogate the core of our institutions. Institutions tested for 250 years and enabled who we've become.

Midterms are coming.

Be safe. Be strong. Enjoy the weekend. Oh yeah - Happy Day to All You Fathers.