Mostly AI - with a Little War

(Let's take a break from the war and our 11th ceasefire attempt. Return to AI, which I suspect we will do...oh about a trillion times more as its era unfolds.)

Some Ways to Think About AI

Let's start at the end. AI is coming, we all know that. The question is do we lead or follow China. It's that simple. Down to us or China to control the space and thereby destiny. Forget about the Europeans. They are in irrevocable malaise.

First, be clear. Many don't want us to win. So when you process information be wary of the source. Many Trump & America haters will proffer wearing sheep's clothing. Most are funded obscurely by our enemies. e.g., Jews against AI. Yeah right. Great powers seldom die by homicide. They die by suicide.

Obviously opinions are divided. Jury is out. Polls show use of AI is growing rapidly. So too is fear. More and more, especially Gen-Zers (aka Zoomers) believe it will lead to massive losses in jobs and career opportunities.

So it is with every new technology. Anybody remember the Internet?

Here are some other angles to consider.

Our population growth is diminishing. Fewer marriages, fewer babies. Immigration has finally slowed due to border security, so the volume of illegals will shrink.

Together, this means fewer bodies. Fewer arms and legs and brains. A drop in human capacity to do work that is needed.

AI can be huge offset to the inevitable reduction in human capacity, which means our economy doesn't have to shrink.

A lot of smart people say AI won't lead to overwhelming job loss. More probably, it will mean those who don't learn to use AI will lose jobs to those who do.

Of course, there's the issue of China. AI is a matter of structural advantage. Like it or not, AI will be the biggest driver, not only of prosperity, but national security over the next 25-50 years. If China dominates, this will not auger well for the US or its western allies. If China wins, we lose and the stagnation begins. No choice but to stay in front. China is already way past a tee shirt economy and a billion man army. It is a burgeoning military superpower.

Last but not least. Mythos. So new most don't know how to pronounce. Apparently the most powerful AI ever. So lethal in terms of hacking systems, its creator, Anthropic, proactively withdrew it from the open market and got in touch with the government to figure out how to control. Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but it can analyze systems and find unknown vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses

On a lighter note. Despite geometrical expansion, AI-spawned applications still have lots of bugs. A Chinese robot tripped at the start of a race and exploded into a kazillion pieces. An eyewitness reported...As soon as I saw that robot start walking, I knew it was doomed. It just had too much of a dopey walk, and sure enough, as soon as it encountered one of those little plastic speed bump things that you use to hide wires, it went down hard. But things got wild when the robot started break dancing and bashing itself into a million robotic pieces.

We still have time.

Mamdani Front

The Mayor is now out conducting apartment inspections on TV. NYC is already the most heavily regulated city on earth when it comes to rental apartment standards. I can't imagine any developer with all his marbles would build in NYC.

Funny but a district on the Lower East Side that went huge Mamdani in the election just filed a suit against him because he wants to build a Homeless Shelter in their neighborhood. Do as I say...

Gerrymandering on Steroids

So what does "gerrymandering" really mean?

If means redrawing congressional districts to stack the deck. So one party has a superior chance of electing representatives of its own to Congress.

In theory this is only supposed to happen in accordance with a new census and is to reflect changes in the proportion of voters for each party. In theory.

But that ain't how it's working today. Like so many things, it's been weaponized. You see the states have the right to redistrict as they see fit.

In Virginia on Tuesday voters narrowly passed a measure to redistrict. The result, Virginia is likely to have a 10 to 1 split between Democrats and Republicans in the House of Representatives.

To judge whether that is fair, just look at the 2024 Presidential election. 52% voted for Harris and 46% for Trump. I'd call that Purple - not DEEP Blue. More like 5.5-4.5 not 10 to 1. Even the extremely pro-Democratic, liberal NYT called it the "most extreme a gerrymander as exists in the US today."

But...what goes around comes around. Fight fire with fire and all that stuff. Here comes Florida next. Then, wait until the 2030 census and see how the Dems fare in the Electoral College. All those U Haulers will make a difference.

For Those New to CME

And as we draw closer to the midterms, remember...

Giving Dems the joystick will hurt worse than ever. Their anger, their vitriol, their thirst for revenge is at record levels.

First they want to stop Trump in his tracks. Losing the House or Senate or Both could do just that.

Then they want control back in 2028. With it will come, not only the inevitable massive tax increases, open borders, onslaught of regulations and starvation of the military, but for sure three other beauties. Pack SCOTUS, Statehood for perpetually Democratic DC and Puerto Rico and death of the filibuster.

In case you're considering pulling a Rosie or an Ellen and thinking of leaving, where could you actually go?

Miami Sports Update

No playoffs for Panthers or Heat. Dolphins about to make another dumb draft pick. Marlins already in a slide. Go Canes.

Be clear...Heat and Panthers are nothing alike. Panthers were murdered by injuries and no doubt fatigued by three Stanley Cup campaigns. They should be fine.

Heat are a fiasco. Riley should have been gone 5 years ago. They have nothing to look forward to.

Marlins are Marlins. Find an acorn (good player) then trade him as soon as you can.

Dolphins have a new GM (long overdue) and Coach but no QB. Let's see how the rebuild goes. It will be a long one I'm sure. Especially if owner Ross puts in his two cents.

Like I said...Go Canes, please.

Canary in the Coal Mine

Antisemitism is the canary in the coal mine. It is a harbinger of programmatic degradation of human values, morality and, likely, western civilization. Any movement that backs the behavior of Hamas and the IRGC can only be rooted in pure evil.

40 of 47 Democrats just six days ago voted against an aid and cooperation package with Israel. Contained ventures and technology sharing on tunneling, missile defense, Golden Dome and intelligence. This is an historic rebuke of our strongest (only?) ally with whom we are currently partnering in a war against the globe's greatest terrorist.

But let's be clear. This is not a rebuke of Israel, Jews or, in any way, a display of antisemitism. It is purely and simply...say it three times. TDS, TDS, TDS.

Finally the War

Conundrum: a confusing, difficult and intricate problem. This is where the War in Iran now stands. Is the Strait open? Has the bombing stopped? Is a ceasefire in effect? Are protestors still being murdered? Who's in charge for the Bad Guys?

Ever see the skit, "Who's on First?" It is a hilarious exchange between Abbott and Costello filmed in 1945. The gist is total confusion over player names on a baseball team where a player named Who plays first base. Any way - very funny, which the situation in Iran is not. Seems no way to determine who's in charge although most agree hard line IRGC commanders are calling the shots. Problem is civilian officials are doing the negotiating.

Einstein Said It First

If I had to do it again, I'd be a plumber. In 1954, the smartest guy who ever lived said,  “I would rather choose to be a plumber or a peddler in the hope to find that modest degree of independence still available under present circumstances.”

In today's AI data center world, he might choose an electrician.

Earnings Didn't Blink

Earlier we wondered why the markets were so dismissive of the War impact. Turns out it's likely far greater faith in fundamentals. The V-shaped recovery of late is mostly to do with strong profits. With 25% of companies reporting over 83% beat their forecast. Same story with revenues.

If the rest of earnings season delivers as expected, it would mark six straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth — the longest such streak since the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.

All the brouhaha about impending worldwide economic doom seems just that. Much like Tucker's prediction if we attacked Iran WW3 would surely follow.

Two...Maybe Three More Weeks

Then Iran runs out of storage for its oil. Wells must be capped. If it stays that way for long, irreversible damage likely occurs and future output will be compromised. Jus' sayin'.

How long can they keep paying the IRGC goons when they're losing $435 million A DAY? I say keep it up until not a drop is flowing. Sooner of later the people will be back out in the streets. Will unpaid IRGC and Basij thugs be willing to gun down their neighbors if they're not getting paid?

Have a nice weekend. Headed off to (dare I say it) the Wildfire State. First ever to play Pebble Beach. That's golf.