Two weeks Til D Day (5 min)

Top 3

#1 - France's Humiliation Accelerates.

#2 - AI: Next Big Short?

#3 - Grandma's a Problem Here Too.

#1 - Not About School Hours Any More

This past June I was having dinner while on holiday with a couple who lived in Paris. The wife was British and the husband was French. I made the indelicate observation that Paris used to be my favorite city but my last two trips there revealed things were no longer the same...and "not" in a good way. The pair took great umbrage at my remarks and fervently defended their city. "Everything is just fine".

Turns out I was more right than wrong. France, not just Paris, is burning.

Here is last week's quote from an American journalist who lives in "The City of Light":

"In Paris, this was happening only a mile or so from where I live. It was hard to turn your eyes away and watch or do something else as you were hypnotized by the scenes of violent assaults on the police and property, counter-charges from the police, all to the soundtrack of sirens and a landscape of familiar, usually busy city streets, wreathed in smoke from burning cars and dustbins, or heavy with the fumes of tear gas."

A recent investigation into the current chaos revealed no less than 28 "named" communist and socialist organizations located in eight countries who are actively collaborating to fuel these riots with cash and rhetoric. Estimates of those involved in the protests ranges from 550,000 to 800,000.

The damage so far? 2400 arrests. 1000 police injured. 3000 businesses destroyed or shut down. $100 million Euros in property damage. What's really scary is that rioters moved in rapid, coordinated fashion to maximize damage and avoid law enforcement. This is no longer about school days being "too long".

Bottom line? France is being humiliated. The nexus of Socialists/Communists and Islamic immigrants has gained critical mass. Similar student-led uprisings going on throughout Italy and Spain. Though not yet so egregious. Not yet.

Is this the beginning of state-wide failure in Europe? One can only exist so long in a zero productivity zone. The new term, once confined to a political movement in Denmark, is the Red-Green alliance. That's when tree huggers team up with Commies.

As one elegant French lady put it..."Assimilation is a myth. Social benefits, safety, anti-racism policies, their own schools - and this is how they thank us? How did France ever go from a jewel of European civilization to be ruled by a bunch of thugs with IQs of 80?"

How indeed? Foreshadowing? Harbinger?

#2 - AI: The Next Enron?

If you don't remember Enron, you surely recall the GFC. Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Ring a bell? Subprime mortgage fiasco when the stock market crashed and the feds had to swoop in and rescue major U.S. companies.

Throughout history, there have always been doomsday prophets. Well, the chorus of "Chicken Littles" warning that another GFC is coming thanks to AI spending is growing perceptibly in size and volume.

As we all know, spending on data centers, etc. is now at epidemic levels. Estimated at $1.2 trillion and counting. True, much of this debt is being taken on by uber rich tech giants such as Amazon, Google, Meta, Oracle and Microsoft. But a pile of it belongs to AI companies and their network of suppliers who aren't yet making a dime in profits.

Worse yet, repayment is back-loaded, meaning the can is being kicked down the road. Seems like that's a lot of tokens to sell.

Investors are racing to buy credit default swaps to protect their portfolios in the event the AI boom unravels, sending trading volumes surging for an instrument that shot to prominence during the global financial crisis.

A growing number of prognosticators are speculating that the public outcry against data centers, not to mention human extinction, may soon be the lesser of AI problems. Remember the movie "The Big Short"? Great cast...Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling. Could AI be the next Big Short?

#3 - You Blame Grandma Here Too

As bad as things seem in Europe, we'll soon be "paying our own piper".

Ad nauseum, we have been warned...Social Security and Medicare finances are headed for a reckoning. 

Social Security has run an annual deficit since 2010, and its trust fund is projected to become insolvent by 2032. The Medicare Part A trust fund is projected to follow in 2033. Here's the latest.

Far from paying for themselves through payroll taxes and premiums, Social Security and Medicare are running a combined $847 billion cash shortfall in 2026—comprising roughly half of the entire federal budget deficit. Their combined shortfall is projected to reach $2.7 trillion a year within a decade, becoming the overwhelming driver of rising federal budget deficits.

Over the following three decades, the two programs are projected to run a cumulative cash shortfall of $157 trillion. All told, these shortfalls will account for nearly 80% of all federal budget deficits over the next three decades.

Clearly, something has to give—before these shortfalls drive the federal debt to a projected 240% of GDP within thirty years and push interest costs high enough to consume a majority of annual tax revenue. France is there already. "Nuff said.

***

And the Rest of the News...

Drones Take Out Three Data Centers

No...not here. In Russia. Ukraine drones took out three data centers of Yandex, which is referred to as "Russia's Google." The wipeout is wreaking havoc causing severe disruptions across the country, impeding Russians’ ability to send emails, make payments, and navigate the streets.

But it could be here some day if we let nut jobs like the IRGC have their way. Message? Physical infrastructures are vulnerable. Oh yeah, turns out the supercomputers on which the Russian data centers and their network rely cannot be replaced any time soon.

The Growing GIG Economy

As everybody but me knows, the term "Gig" is not an acronym but a word that refers to the part time, free lance economy that is picking up steam big time. As in...I'm picking up a "gig". As opposed to having a full time job. Of course, gigs can also be a side hustle.

It is estimated that there are now 320 million gig workers in China, accounting for more than 40 per cent of urban employment. They include food delivery drivers, ride-hailing drivers, local freight drivers, domestic helpers, nannies, caregivers for the elderly and repair technicians.

In the U.S. somewhere between 25 and 30% of adults report having a gig.

I wonder how long it will be before these jobs vanish in the face of competition from drones, driverless cars and robots. A highly marketable skill is still the best "gig".

Middle Initials Matter

A New Low in Election Chicanery

Long time Alaskan Republican Senator, Dan Sullivan, is running for re-election. The Democrats decided to run one of their own "Dan Sullivans" hoping a number of voters will pull the wrong level. DS 2 is running under a no party

affiliation. Pay attention to those middle initials. In close races they matter.

***

Musings...

Auto Hold is the Bomb

It's that feature that stops your car from creeping ahead at stop lights and crunching the car in front while you check your phone. I love it.

Universal Healthcare - Know What Else It Means?

U.S. taxpayers, as in you and I, will pay for healthcare for illegal immigrants. Including all the murderers, rapists, child traffickers, drug dealers and future terrorists that the Democrats have before and will in the future let in. Jus' sayin'.

In China, for example...It is estimated that there are now 320 million gig workers in China, accounting for more than 40 per cent of urban employment. They include food delivery drivers, ride-hailing drivers, local freight drivers, domestic helpers, nannies, carers for the elderly and repair technicians. I wonder how long it will be before these jobs vanish in the face of competition from drones, driverless cars and robots.