Midweek Update (10/14/29 - 10 min.)

Top Three

#1 - Grandma's to Blame

#2 - Iran: Same Old Same Old

#3 - Fraud Update

#1 - Euro Dilemma

It's long overdue that European governments receive their richly deserved comeuppance after the absurd social contract they implemented post WWII. In a blatantly self-serving attempt to win back public trust after nearly losing the continent to Hitler, they gave away the store. Nationalized healthcare, five week vacations, no layoffs, and a cornucopia of other government handouts.

Since then, Europe, with the temporary exception of a rebuilding Germany, has been the empire of stagnation served up with effete arrogance. Shielded by the might of the U.S., they made a golden handshake with their citizenry, rather than tending to priorities of national security, productivity and innovation. They tried to pay for all this with onerous taxes (aided by defaulting on NATO and other U.S. obligations), but it wasn't enough.

Then they started to borrow and borrow. Next came the oil shocks in 1974 and 79, the financial crisis (2008-09), Covid 19 and now more oil shocks. Underneath these "mierda happens" lies another problem of epidemic proportion, which is why I say, "Grandma's to blame".

Europe is getting old and fast. Of course, we all are, but Europe's problem is far worse. The gap between those paying to support the safety net for seniors and welfare for illegals and indigents AND those receiving payouts is mushrooming. The math no longer works and hasn't for quite some time.

Consider these facts:

• These systems were designed for 2.5 children per family and an average life expectancy of 62, not 1.25 kids and living to 79. With a few exceptions, the European models are in a nosedive to insolvency.

• This aging trend is not about to stop. The dependency ratio is forecast to rise from 32.6 seniors per 100 people of working age in 2024 to 55.2 in 2054—a 69 percent increase.

• Take Britain, for example. Since 2000, the public cost of healthcare and other care for Britain’s over-65s has doubled.

It is inconceivable, given the penchant of European governments for inaction, that this dilemma will do anything but grow worse. The trickle down effect will be massive considering the enormous influx of immigrants over the past 5-10 years.

So...don't expect the protests to abate any time soon.

Of course, we have similar though not yet so egregious problems here. I do know one thing. I shan't be planning any holidays in London, Paris, Madrid...any time soon.

(One more comment and promise I'll move on. We have a two-party system in the U.S. Yet we still can't make the fiscal reforms needed to put our house in order. The Croats have 21 parties in their national legislatures. The Dutch have around 17. The Spaniards have about 13, the Italians nine, the Greeks seven etc. etc.).

#2 - Iran: Not Much New with the Mullahs

Economic pressures continue. Many prices up 100% year to date. Nurses say they'll stay home rather than work for $100 a month. Now, even guys with guns are not getting paid. The Economist reports the Iranian army is no longer being paid, though the IRGC still is. One thing to gun down unarmed civilians, quite another to tick off soldiers with live ammo.

Meanwhile, Trump is still playing the long game in the hope he can finesse gas prices enough to stop the Blue Tsunami in November. Even reported a deal for diesel with Putin, while announcing another wishful thinking ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. No more destroying each other's energy installations - not overall. It was violated the next day.

#3 - SBA This Time

Most of the fraud the Trump Administration under JD has been uncovering to date has been Medicare/Medicaid related. Now a new honeypot has been found. The Small Business Administration.

The SBA makes loans, as the name implies, to small businesses to get them started and tide over tough times.

When COVID shut down the country, small business owners did everything they could to keep their doors open. They drained their savings, skipped paychecks, and fought to keep employees on the payroll.

While small businesses were fighting to survive, fraudsters stole billions from programs meant to keep them afloat. The Biden-Harris administration had years to hold fraudsters accountable. It never did. Under Republican leadership, that era is over.

The Biden-Harris SBA knew COVID fraud was rampant and still failed to act. In 2023, the SBA’s Office of Inspector General estimated that more than $200 billion in pandemic loans may have gone to fraudsters. When then-SBA Administrator Isabella Guzman was asked to explain, she refused to testify.

Last month, SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler stood with Vice President Vance in Kansas City, Missouri, and announced the suspension of 870,000 borrowers, the largest action of its kind in the agency's history. Apparently one of the most popular schemes was to take the loan and then subcontract the work.

Again, billions stolen from U.S. taxpayers and the Biden administration turned a blind eye.

***

Other News...

Capital is Mobile

Jack Kemp, a pioneer of supply side economics and Reaganism, once said..."the only way to grow prosperity and employment is to expand the tax base of the nation. States should want to grow taxpayers not tax existing ones more.

Want a prosperous economy, that attracts businesses and balances budgets? Expand the tax base...don't shrink it.

What is it these Blue States don't get? By taxing the living daylights out of residents and businesses with onerous state and city taxes and now "billionaire taxes", the only economy you create is a U-Haul one.

Capital, wealth, investment are mobile. Start restricting then seizing and they will flee.

Another thing former NFL QB Kemp said was...Tax anything and you get less of it. Subsidize anything you get more. Both investment and handouts.

I know, I know. Pols don't care. All they want is to stay in power to accumulate power then riches. Their strategy - promise anything especially "free stuff". Which never is as Liberals prove time and again..

More on France Burning

As suspected...

"The protests started in an apparently spontaneous way in the disadvantaged, immigrant suburbs of Paris," Nathalie Szerman, researcher in radicalization and extremism in France at MEMRI, told reporters, but "it quickly became clear that the violence demonstrated in these protests conveyed a huge amount of hate towards the ‘system’ and not much concern for better material conditions in schools, as dozens of schools across France have suffered vandalism and blockades, and many were even set on fire."

She points to protestors taking to the streets carrying Palestinian flags. "Pro-Palestinian organizations, such as Urgence Palestine, have declared the month of October to be a month of revolt, and these groups are supporting and fueling these demonstrations."

So, here's the deal. Let these poor, disenfranchised immigrants in (or, more accurately, fail to stop them) and they reward you with violence, destruction and even fatalities. Thank you very much.

Florida Continues to Get It Right

Boy, will I be sad to see Governor Ron DeSantis leave Tallahassee in January.

The DeSantis Administration's latest Medicaid fraud crackdown helped drive a nearly $1 billion reduction in projected annual spending on behavioral therapy services alone after investigators uncovered suspicious billing practices.

Tallahassee’s crackdown included discoveries of providers billing Medicaid for more hours than there are in a day

More than 220 Medicaid providers have been terminated for fraud, waste or abuse, while more than 260 face payment restrictions or suspensions.

What do Democrats say? Republicans are depriving poor of healthcare.

All You Need to Know.

Three times this weekend, Islamist candidate for US senator in Michigan, Abu El Sayed was asked..."Who represents a greater threat to America - Iran or Israel?

After dodging twice by stating Israel "gets us into wars we shouldn't be in", the third time, El-Sayed cut off the interviewer with a smirk saying, "That's a ridiculous question."

Yes, it is a "ridiculous" question. Ridiculously easy to answer.

The curious thing is what should this tells us about Abu? All politicians are pathological liars. Could he not just "fudge"? Or is he so down deep wedded to the doctrine that Islam must prevail against the Jews and the infidels of the West that he can't bring himself to say the words?

This single exchange should tell Michigan voters, at least those living outside the Muslim conclave in Dearborn, all they need to know. As the pastor of Detroit's largest parish said, "He's cares more about Gaza than Detroit".

You bet your booty he does.

"Breaking Up is Hard to Do" (Neil Sedaka, 19620

Kimberley Guilfoyle, formerly of Fox News' "The Five" and paramour of Don Jr. was made Ambassador to Greece after she and Don hung it up. Now she's been give the boot for asking a big donor to disappear her $100K Amex card bill.

Oh well. What goes up must come down.

I know, I know. Slow news day.

***

Musings

Prices "Almost" Never Come Down

Do people not understand that prices, overall, never really come down? Sure, they might for a specific commodity or technology. Like the price of your TV. But, as a whole, they never do.

Technically, in order for prices overall to come down, there must be "negative" inflation, also know as deflation. In the past 50 years, going back to the Peanut farmer, we have had exactly one year of negative inflation. In 2009, right after the horrendous financial crash, prices came down 0.4%. Every other year, prices went up.

Under Biden they went up an average of 5% a year. Under Trump they have gone up 2.7%. This year inflation is at 3.4%, Estimates are 0.5 to 0.8 is due to increased tariffs. And 0.6 is due to the Iran conflict.

In general, prices come down only when supply exceeds demand or a lower cost supply enters a market. Otherwise not. No matter what any politician says about affordability. Only when a market for a particular good or service attracts new suppliers because it is a) free and open; b) profit margins are attractive and demand is increasing - will prices actually come down. Shortages caused by regulations, interruptions in and suppliers leaving will raise prices as oil and gas have during the Iran conflict.

Because Trump's rhetoric is so unstructured, if not irresponsible, he uses terms like...bringing prices down. When he should be saying I'll bring down the rate at which prices are going up. This phenomenon is directly akin to politicians saying they'll cut spending, when in reality, at best, they mean cut the rate at which spending is going up.

The Left Remembers October 7: What Does It Really Mean

By now we can all recite the facts. 6000 Hamas terrorists invaded southern Israel with a mission to kill as many Israelis as possible. The mission was a "success". 1200 men, women, children and babies murdered. 5000 injured, many gravely. 250 hostages taken.

What was the goal? Most experts say it was the latest in a series of atrocities designed to provoke sufficiently massive Israeli retaliation (even nuclear) such that the rest of the Arab world would join Jihad and finally take down, not only Israel, but the infidels of the West.

Hamas and their cohorts in Hezbollah and Iran got two surprises from what followed. First, to their great chagrin, the Arab world condemned the attacks and refused to lift a finger in support. Conversely, in a very pleasant and totally unanticipated surprise, the West stepped up. Universities, liberal politicians and leftwing media joined the terrorists. Overnight, Hamas-led Gazans became the victims and Israel the terrorist. Even today, Israel and, by association, the Trump Administration, are the villains. The monsters.

Here is what Comrade Mamdani had to say about the October 7 atrocities on the third anniversary. after acknowledging the killings, he quickly went on:

“The suffering did not begin nor end that day. It instead continued through the Israeli government’s devastating, ongoing genocide in Gaza, in which it has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians —including more than 21,000 children. Even since the so-called ceasefire, more than 1,400 Palestinians have been killed. That suffering has intensified with every Israeli bomb dropped on ambulances waiting outside hospitals, every drone strike targeting a residential building or journalist, and every shipment of food aid turned away at a border crossing. Many New Yorkers are reckoning with this unbearable grief, and we mourn alongside them —all while knowing that our tax dollars fund these war crimes,”

So 6000 terrorists murdering 1200 civilians is a shame, but the real story is the oppression of Israel and America. What does this insane juxtaposition of reality and morality really mean? Read on...

Sense-making Institutions are Off the Rails

The foundation for morality, common sense and rectitude is the responsibility of birth parents. And herein lies part of the problem. Fatherless families and parents led off track by power-hungry politicians and leftist media do not make for solid foundations.

But there is a greater problem. I heard two terms the other day that resonated. The first was "social parenting". Earlier and earlier in life our children depart from parents being their primary influence. They venture forth into society. To school, to social media, to university and to jobs. These institutions become their "social parents". In the same way as birth parents, these social parents have a responsibility. To help forge the young into productive, morally grounded members of society. Clearly, today, the "social parents" are failing far worse than birth parents ever did.

The other term that caught my eye was "sense-making" institutions. The ones we depend on to guide, inform and develop our young, indeed us all, so we can "make sense" out of the world around them and, indeed, life itself. When our sense-making institutions abrogate this sacred responsibility, good things do not follow. Are not following.

When education openly despises our country and denigrates its founders, good will not follow. When our universities, our political leaders, our mainstream media turn the perpetrators of depravity in cause celebre's, into symbols of righteousness, good will not follow. When the unprovoked slaughter of thousands of innocents is twisted into a symbol of oppression, when eight guys taking turns with an inebriated young woman is judged on its legal merits instead of the depravity it represents...good things cannot follow. When an illegal immigrant uses a rock to smash in a young women's head two weeks after being released into society and then is given a pass...good things cannot follow.

So who's to blame. Is it really Israel defending its homeland, the eight guys because technically the girl did not say "stop", or the immigrant who was escaping a despot in Central America? I think not.

Until we put in place leaders at the academic and governmental levels with the courage and morals to be responsible "social parents", we will continue our descent. Our institutions will continue with nonsense.

November 4th is the next opportunity to begin reversing course.

See you soon.