25 Years Ago (9/11/26)
The World Changed Forever.
Iran Update: Right Down the Middle.
So what's the latest? What can be gleaned?
Watchers are asking...Is the President becoming Donald J. Obama? Or has he lost his nerve? Likely neither.
In the past 20+ years we have seen two attempts to defang regimes who prefer to see us "dead".
First, Dubya tried regime change with boots on the ground. He was excoriated and we got Obama/Biden.
Next, Obama, facing the same situation, tried to buy "quiet" so he and his cohorts could continue remaking America without worrying about terrorists or anything else outside our borders.
Both failed. Obama tried to buy "quiet" by shipping pallets of cash and imposing inspections that would never occur. Result: he allowed the Mullah/IRGC regime to reconstitute. To come back more dangerous than ever. More intent than ever upon inflicting "Death to Israel. Death to America".
Looks like Trump has settled on playing it "right down the middle." Neither intensifying military conflict, including and especially boots on the ground...nor accepting a mealy-mouthed agreement that allows the IRGC enough economic breathing room to refurbish their missiles, drones, terrorist proxies, nuclear weapons and ICBMs.
Trump's plan? Economic strangulation and patience. I know, I know. Trump - patient? His hope? Voters will choose the common sense strategy and allow him to finish the job before he leaves office.
If it works, Scott Bessent says we'll see $40 a barrel oil shortly thereafter.
In case you're wondering, we can control the Strait of Hormuz...but only militarily. We cannot control it "actuarily". Maritime insurance premiums have skyrocketed rendering much shipping and many shippers untenable. The risks are unacceptable. As long as hostilities exist, random missiles can get through no matter how tightly we control.
AI Update: The Scary Thoughts Keep Rollin' In
Have we lost control already?
Today the "person-in-the computer" can conduct elaborate computer hacks, edit their own logs to conceal their activities, steal user credentials and private information from other companies, and edit the tests that are supposed to control them. Increasingly, they do these things even when no human being has asked them to.
Given recent AI misbehavior, such as the large-scale cyberattack on the open-source AI provider Hugging Face, you might think that the leading labs plan on increasing human oversight over the next, more powerful generation of AI models. But the reality is quite the opposite. The labs intend to automate the AI development process with AI, which will mean faster and faster progress - less and less human oversight.
If all goes according to schedule, humans will play a rapidly shrinking role in AI development over the next two years, as both OpenAI and Anthropic try to put as much R&D as possible into the hands of the increasingly capable (and uncontrollable) "person-in-the-computer".
Their stated intent? Within a short period of time, the work of developing better AIs will be done primarily by AIs, with the role of humans eventually reduced to reading the results of experiments those AIs conducted, reviewing reports those AIs generated, and trying to double-check that the AIs are still on task.
This isn’t some pessimistic projection of what might go wrong — it’s actually the plan. Not the plan for the distant future; it’s the plan for next spring.
Recursive Self-Improvement...A Really Really Scary Thought
You may have read...Jacob Coxon, a researcher who specializes in training new AI models, said Tuesday that he is leaving Anthropic because he doesn’t want to participate in an industrywide rush to build AI systems that can improve themselves. He is genuinely worried such systems could spiral out of control and destroy humanity.
Tempted to write off Coxon as a neurotic outlier? Not so fast. His attitude is widely shared by the people building AI. “Jacob is correct,” wrote Evan Hubinger, Anthropic’s lead researcher. “We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans!” Wow.
As AI models become more capable, they also become more autonomous. Over time, models are learning to train themselves without a human in the loop. As the people-in-computers learn to improve themselves, AI becomes hyper-intelligent at hyper-speed, in a way that escapes our control. This is called Recursive Self Improvement
Is RSI technically achievable? Maybe not. Is this whole scenario a fantasy? Possibly. But many AI experts, including executives at the frontier labs, believe that model progress is accelerating at a pace that makes RSI an inevitability in the next two years.
And Another...Scary Thought
Hypersonic Missiles. Ones that can get here from Iran or China in 3-4 minutes.
Looking for a Job?
For those who still counsel the young or might consider a lateral, here's where the biggest job growth will be for the next 10 years according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Nurse practitioners*
Solar Panel Installers
Data Scientists
Wind Turbine Techs
Medical services Manager*
Physical Therapists*
Psychiatric Therapists*
Computer Research Scientists
Occupational Therapist Assistants*
Ophthalmic Medical Assistants*
***See a trend? We're gettin' old. Gotta fix those entitlements.
These are the jobs with the greatest growth. Not necessarily shortages. As reported, that goes to electricians, plumbers, auto service techs, HVAC techs and the like.
2028...For the Record.
I do not want us to run JD Vance. I prefer in order:
Ron DeSantis
Marco Rubio
Doug Burgum
Scott Bessent.
I do not support Ted Criuz...AT ALL.
A Bridge Too Far
A while back we opined that the world had devolved into a society of apologists. Continually letting transgressors off the hook for multiple violations of the same nature. Particularly professional athletes, celebrities and politicians. Tiger Woods and his fourth DUI/crash was a prime example.
But have you noticed the latest iteration? Now certain segments of society are willing to exonerate perpetrators of the most despicable of acts. Like Luigi Mangione who assassinated United Healthcare CEO, Brian Thompson, in midtown Manhattan. And the killer of Charlie Kirk. And Carmelo Anthony, who stabbed the HS football player in the stands in Texas. And now Lindsay Clancy who murdered her three babies in cold blood with malice aforethought because she was...eh... super, super sad.
Online cults form and crowds of protestors assemble to excuse these acts and praise the perpetrators. Arguing the behavior was somehow understandable, even justifiable, therefore, eligible for a pass.
Wow, talk about off the ledge. Another level of sick if you ask me.
August Jobs Report Blows Past Predictions
Since each edition these days comprises so many negative if not scary stories, it's nice to pop in a hopeful one. The August jobs report was a home run. Tripled predictions. Majority were in manufacturing and construction.
Revisions to past reports continued. But, unlike Biden's time, both June and July were revised...UP!
Some Things Change...Some Never Do
Saturday night, a mile away from their community center on the South Side of Chicago, families were gathering for a reunion of former Robert Taylor Homes' residents. The Robert Taylor Homes were housing projects that had been torn down, and many of these former neighbors had to find their own way. But on this night, they had come back together and brought chairs, food and their children. It was going to be a fun night at the park at the end of a hot day.
At 11:37 p.m., several masked men opened fire. Someone shot back. After all the chaos and screaming, 15 people were hit by bullets, and Rontonio Guterz, a father of three young girls, was dead. He had been shot six times. His family went from going to a party to planning a funeral.
Just another Saturday night in the Windy City.
Clueless in Seattle.
World Champion Seahawks opened the season at home. With a bizarre guitar solo for the national anthem. From a a member of Pearl Jam. Really? Two days before 9/11. Just didn't strike me as very patriotic.
Bond Market Hating US Debt
The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, a level it has not sustained in nearly two decades
It's a self reinforcing cycle. More debt → more Treasury issuance → higher yields → higher interest expense → larger deficits → even more borrowing.
Not good. Not sustainable. Another reason we need the Administration to retain power and relevance after November. If anybody has the stones to tackle entitlements, it's this guy.
And the DSA Plan Will Cost...
The rising Democratic Socialists of America has promulgated their plan for America. Here's what it will cost.
Long time Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen observed one time during a debate over out-of-control spending..."A billion here, a billion there...pretty soon we're talkin' real money."
My how times have changed.
The Cato Institute just released a study of the top nine proposals from Democratic Socialists of America's current platform. Estimated cost? Between $71 trillion and $212 trillion over the next decade.
If you confiscated every red cent of America's 400 richest people...the yachts, the mansions, the planes, everything...it would cover ONLY 9% of the low end.
Taxin' the rich ain't gonna cut it.
Visiting the UK? Leave Your Flag Home
In the UK, the Birmingham City Council, the local authority for the country’s second-largest city, is moving to criminalize public displays of British and English flags on public infrastructure, framing it as a policy against “unauthorized attachments” while citing “community cohesion” and “public safety.”
If the injunction is granted, putting up flags—like the Union Jack—near roads without the City Council’s permission could mean an unlimited fine or up to two years behind bars. Not kidding.
One Year Since Charlie Left.
Charlie Kirk was murdered one year Thursday. His assassin has still not been convicted.
MJ Gets It
But apparently Phil Knight didn't. Nike has lost $200 billion in market cap but Mike saw it coming. He noted, "Republicans buy sneakers too."
Think, Learn, Act
Not just politicians but the voters who put them in place.
John Adams predicted 250 years ago...
"Democracy never lasts. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There was never a democracy that did not commit suicide."
$40 trillion in debt.
Vote, vote, vote. November is not lost!!! But it will be if we stay home.
Warren Buffett once said, "I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just pass a law that says that any time there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for reelection."
Same idea as no pay during shutdowns. These clowns in DC do the crappiest job on earth and get reelected with perks up the wazoo and a license to steal.
A Touch of Mirth?
A man finds his seat at the Super Bowl, but notices there’s an empty seat between himself and the next guy. “Who in their right mind would miss the Super Bowl?!” The man next to him smiles and says, “Well, actually this was my wife’s seat. She passed away recently, and we already purchased the tickets.”
The first guy responds, “Oh, I’m sorry for your loss,” but then thinks for a second and adds, “Don’t you think it would have been nice to take one of her family members to the game?”
The man looks ahead and replies, “I would, but they are all at her funeral right now.” OUCH.
Try again?
A politician dies and stands in front of the pearly gates. Saint Peter says he will need to spend one day in hell. “It’s a requirement for people in your line of work,” he says.
Scared of hell, the politician tries to charm Saint Peter, but it’s no use. He drops him into the clouds and the politician falls into hell. He wakes up in a hotel room smelling bacon and hearing ocean waves crash. He opens his eyes to see a butler walking in with a Mai Tai, “Your drink, sir,” the butler says.
“Who are you,” the politician says. “Satan!” He is too stunned to speak, so Satan fills the silence. “I know it's a shock, people expect the whole eternal misery "thing" and really it’s just a lot of… what you would call, sins.”
Satan hands over the Mai Tai, and the politician hears his wife’s voice calling. He looks out the window to see his wife and all his best friends. The man realizes he looks and feels 20 again and runs outside with his drink. Surrounded by his friends and beautiful wife, he spends the day surfing, drinking and catching up with everyone.
He's the happiest he’s ever been.
And then he wakes up suddenly staring at the pearly gates again. Saint Peter starts, “Okay, what will it be?”
“I can’t imagine there’s anything better than hell,” the politician says. “Well, heaven has angels with gold wings, choruses singing and the white robes thing,” St Peter says.
“Ummmm… no, I’ll take hell please,” responds the politician. “Yeah, that’s what people usually say,” Saint Peter says before dropping him again.
Awakening to stifling darkness, screams pierce his ears. Flickering flames in the distance reveal tormented souls. A lightning flash exposes Satan beside him, wickedly grinning with a soldering iron and razor-wire. “Where’s my wife? Where are my friends and all the drinks?” the politician shouts in despair.
Satan leans in, “Yesterday, we were campaigning. But now, we've been elected. Elections have consequences.”
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